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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest shock.

Yet the current field is distinctly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and recent also-rans improving collectively. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

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